On Friday, the price of Brent crude (crude oil) rose 4.5% to $ 69.23 a barrel after a top Iranian military officer was killed in a US airstrike. The rupee also fell 42 paise to end at a one-and-a-half month low of 71.80 per dollar. Petrol and diesel prices in India may also increase after the rise in crude oil prices and the rupee falling. According to Kedia Commodity Director Ajay Kedia, if Iran retaliates against the US, the price of crude oil could reach $ 75 to $ 78 per barrel in this quarter. This may cause the rupee to slip to 75 against the dollar. If this happens, the price of petrol can once again reach Rs 90 per liter.
Tension after the death of General Qasim Sulemani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds army, in the US attack, If Iran retaliates, crude oil rate could reach $ 75-78 per barrel in the current quarter,
The dollar will also be stronger against other currencies due to being the currency of international trade, Crude imports will be expensive for Indian oil companies due to increase in crude rate, rupee against dollar
Where will the price of petrol reach if tension increases?
Petrol prices are currently between 75 and 81 rupees per liter in the four major cities of the country. Petrol is 75.35 in Delhi and 80.94 per liter in Mumbai. In Bhopal it is above 83 rupees. Between January and March, the price of crude oil could reach $ 78 if the tension between the US and Iran increases and the oil supply decreases. The rise in the price of crude oil will cause the rupee to fall. Due to both these reasons, the price of petrol can increase by 10 to 12 rupees per liter. Diesel may also increase by up to 10 rupees.
Iraqi Baghdad Airport was attacked by rockets by American drones late Thursday. In this, General Qasim Sulemani, the head of Iran’s elite Quds army, was killed. Iran can also retaliate against the US and if this happens, a war-like situation can arise between the two countries. Both countries are major oil exporters. Currently, Iran’s oil exports have been greatly reduced due to US sanctions. This can be further reduced in the event of increased stress.
If the tension between Iran and America ends in a few days, there will be no increase in the prices of petrol and diesel. But if tension increases, then people may have to pay more for petrol and diesel for the next 2-3 months. After this, the situation can be normal because when there is a shortage in the supply of crude oil, then America, Russia, and other oil-exporting countries will increase the supply.
Only last year, when the US lifted the oil import concessions from Iran to eight countries, including India, oil prices rose for some time but later OPEC (Organization of Petrol Exporting Countries) increased the oil supply. The US also increased its oil supply. This brought crude oil prices under control in a few days.
Crude oil production in India has been between 32 and 36 million metric tons for the last 20 years. It stood at 32.5 million metric tons in 2018-19, which is only 15% of the total consumption in India. The consumption of petroleum products in 2018-19 was 213 million metric tons. That is, India imports 85% of its petroleum products requirement. India imported 226.49 million metric tons of crude oil and 33.34 million metric tons of petroleum products directly in 2018-19. That is, a total of 259.84 million metric tons of petroleum was imported.
During the Islamic Revolution in 980, Iranian students captured the US Embassy in Tehran and held 50 American diplomats and civilians inside it hostage. Since then, the US has started imposing various sanctions on Iran. The US also considers Iran to be pro-international terrorism.
Iran nuclear deal was signed in 2015, America separated from it in 2018
Iran is one of the largest oil exporters in the world and the removal of these sanctions boosted Iran’s economy. But, in May 2018, US President Donald Trump called the deal ‘worthless’ and alienated the US from it.
Trump then imposed a series of sanctions on Iran. The US imposed sanctions on Iran so that it could be forced into a new agreement. Also, all countries of the world were asked not to export any goods from Iran. Since then, there has been a conflict between the two countries.